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{"sheet":"Table 7.1","index":0,"n_rows":14,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":14,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Table 7.1 Quarterly Demand for Tahoe Salt"]
["Year, Qtr","Period\n t","Demand\n Dt"]
["1,2",1,8000]
["1,3",2,13000]
["1,4",3,23000]
["2,1",4,34000]
["2,2",5,10000]
["2,3",6,18000]
["2,4",7,23000]
["3,1",8,38000]
["3,2",9,12000]
["3,3",10,13000]
["3,4",11,32000]
["4,1",12,41000]

{"sheet":"Figure 7.2 & 7.3","index":2,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Figure 7.2 Deseasonalized Demand for Tahoe Salt"]
["Period\n t","Demand\n Dt","Deseasonalized Demand "]
[1,8000]
[2,13000]
[3,23000,{"$f":"(B3+B7+2*SUM(B4:B6))/8","v":19750}]
[4,34000,20625]
[5,10000,21250]
[6,18000,21750]
[7,23000,22500]
[8,38000,22125]
[9,12000,22625]
[10,13000,24125]
[11,32000]
[12,41000]
[]
["Equation 7.2  Deseasonalizing Demand"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
["where:"]
["D =","Demand"]
["p =","periodicity"]
["t =","period"]

{"sheet":"Figure7.4","index":3,"n_rows":21,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":21,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,0,0,5],[15,0,15,2]]}
["Historical Data"]
["Period\n t","Demand\n Dt","Deseasonalized\nDemand\n(Eqn 7.4)           ","Seasonal Factor\n(Eqn 7.5)","Estimate\n(Eqn 7.6)   ","Forecast","Error"]
[1,8000,{"$f":"18439+524*A3","v":18963},{"$f":"B3/C3","v":0.42187417602699995},{"$f":"ROUND((D3+D7+D11)/3,2)","v":0.47},{"$f":"C3*$E$3","v":8912.6099999999988},{"$f":"F3-B3","v":912.60999999999876}]
[2,13000,19487,0.66711140760507004,{"$f":"ROUND((D4+D8+D12)/3,2)","v":0.68},{"$f":"C4*$E$4","v":13251.160000000002},{"$f":"F4-B4","v":251.16000000000167}]
[3,23000,20011,1.1493678476837739,{"$f":"ROUND((D5+D9+D13)/3,2)","v":1.17},{"$f":"C5*$E$5","v":23412.87},412.86999999999898]
[4,34000,20535,1.6557097638178719,{"$f":"ROUNDUP((D6+D10+D14)/3,2)","v":1.67},{"$f":"C6*$E$6","v":34293.449999999997},293.44999999999709]
[5,10000,21059,0.47485635595232445,null,{"$f":"C7*$E$3","v":9897.73},-102.27000000000044]
[6,18000,21583,0.83398971412685907,null,{"$f":"C8*$E$4","v":14676.44},-3323.5599999999995]
[7,23000,22107,1.0403944451983536,null,{"$f":"C9*$E$5","v":25865.19},2865.1899999999987]
[8,38000,22631,1.6791127214882242,null,{"$f":"C10*$E$6","v":37793.769999999997},-206.2300000000032]
[9,12000,23155,0.51824659900669401,null,{"$f":"C11*$E$3","v":10882.849999999999},-1117.1500000000015]
[10,13000,23679,0.54900967101651255,null,{"$f":"C12*$E$4","v":16101.720000000001},3101.7200000000012]
[11,32000,24203,1.3221501466760319,null,{"$f":"C13*$E$5","v":28317.51},-3682.4900000000016]
[12,41000,24727,1.6581065232337122,null,{"$f":"C14*$E$6","v":41294.089999999997},294.08999999999651]
[]
["Forecasted Data"]
["Year, Qtr","Period\nt","Forecasted Demand\n"]
["03,2",13,{"$f":"((18439+(524*B18)))*E3","v":11867.97}]
["03,3",14,{"$f":"((18439+(524*B19)))*E4","v":17527}]
["03,4",15,{"$f":"((18439+(524*B20)))*E5","v":30769.829999999998}]
["04,1",16,{"$f":"((18439+(524*B21)))*E6","v":44794.409999999996}]

{"sheet":"Figure7.7","index":4,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":11,"rows_kept":18,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Tahoe Salt Forecasts Using Four-Period Moving Average"]
["Period\n t","Demand\n Dt","Level\n Lt","Forecast\n Ft","Error\n Et","Absolute\nError\n At","Mean Squared\nError\n MSEt","MADt","% Error","MAPEt","TSt"]
[1,8000]
[2,13000]
[3,23000]
[4,34000,{"$f":"AVERAGE(B3:B6)","v":19500}]
[5,10000,{"$f":"AVERAGE(B4:B7)","v":20000},{"$f":"C6","v":19500},{"$f":"D7-B7","v":9500},{"$f":"ABS(E7)","v":9500},{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F7)/(A7-4)","v":90250000},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F7)/(A7-4)","v":9500},{"$f":"100*F7/B7","v":95},{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I7)","v":95},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E7)/H7","v":1}]
[6,18000,{"$f":"AVERAGE(B5:B8)","v":21250},{"$f":"C7","v":20000},{"$f":"D8-B8","v":2000},{"$f":"ABS(E8)","v":2000},{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F8)/(A8-4)","v":47125000},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F8)/(A8-4)","v":5750},{"$f":"100*F8/B8","v":11.111111111111111},{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I8)","v":53.055555555555557},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E8)/H8","v":2}]
[7,23000,21250,21250,-1750,1750,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F9)/(A9-4)","v":32437500},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F9)/(A9-4)","v":4416.666666666667},7.6086956521739131,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I9)","v":37.906602254428343},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E9)/H9","v":2.2075471698113205}]
[8,38000,22250,21250,-16750,16750,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F10)/(A10-4)","v":94468750},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F10)/(A10-4)","v":7500},44.078947368421055,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I10)","v":39.449688532926515},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E10)/H10","v":-0.93333333333333335}]
[9,12000,22750,22250,10250,10250,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F11)/(A11-4)","v":96587500},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F11)/(A11-4)","v":8050},85.416666666666671,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I11)","v":48.643084159674551},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E11)/H11","v":0.40372670807453415}]
[10,13000,21500,22750,9750,9750,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F12)/(A12-4)","v":96333333.333333328},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F12)/(A12-4)","v":8333.3333333333339},75,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I12)","v":53.03590346639546},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E12)/H12","v":1.5599999999999998}]
[11,32000,23750,21500,-10500,10500,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F13)/(A13-4)","v":98321428.571428567},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F13)/(A13-4)","v":8642.8571428571431},32.8125,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I13)","v":50.146845828338961},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E13)/H13","v":0.28925619834710742}]
[12,41000,24500,23750,-17250,17250,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$7:F14)/(A14-4)","v":123226562.5},{"$f":"SUM($F$7:F14)/(A14-4)","v":9718.75},42.073170731707314,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$7:I14)","v":49.137636441260007},{"$f":"SUM($E$7:E14)/H14","v":-1.517684887459807}]
[13,null,null,{"$f":"C14","v":24500}]
[14,null,null,{"$f":"$C$14","v":24500}]
[15,null,null,{"$f":"$C$14","v":24500}]
[16,null,null,{"$f":"$C$14","v":24500}]

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["Tahoe Salt Forecasts Using Simple Exponential Smoothing"]
["Period t","Demand Dt","Level Lt","Forecast Ft","Error Et","Absolute Error At","Mean Squared Error MSEt","MADt","% Error","MAPEt","TSt"]
[0,null,{"$f":"AVERAGE(B4:B15)","v":22083.333333333332}]
[1,8000,{"$f":"$B$21*B4+(1-$B$21)*C3","v":20675},{"$f":"C3","v":22083.333333333332},{"$f":"D4-B4","v":14083.333333333332},{"$f":"ABS(E4)","v":14083.333333333332},{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E4)/A4","v":198340277.77777773},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F4)/A4","v":14083.333333333332},{"$f":"F4*100/B4","v":176.04166666666666},{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I4)","v":176.04166666666666},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E4)/H4","v":1}]
[2,13000,19907.5,{"$f":"C4","v":20675},{"$f":"D5-B5","v":7675},{"$f":"ABS(E5)","v":7675},{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E5)/A5","v":128622951.38888887},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F5)/A5","v":10879.166666666666},{"$f":"F5*100/B5","v":59.03846153846154},{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I5)","v":117.5400641025641},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E5)/H5","v":2}]
[3,23000,20216.75,{"$f":"C5","v":19907.5},{"$f":"D6-B6","v":-3092.5},{"$f":"ABS(E6)","v":3092.5},{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E6)/A6","v":88936486.342592582},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F6)/A6","v":8283.6111111111113},13.445652173913043,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I6)","v":82.841926793013741},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E6)/H6","v":2.2533449582508966}]
[4,34000,21595.075000000001,{"$f":"C6","v":20216.75},{"$f":"D7-B7","v":-13783.25},{"$f":"ABS(E7)","v":13783.25},{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E7)/A7","v":114196859.89756943},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F7)/A7","v":9658.5208333333321},40.538970588235294,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I7)","v":72.266187741819138},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E7)/H7","v":0.50552081603247556}]
[5,10000,20435.567500000001,{"$f":"C7","v":21595.075000000001},{"$f":"D8-B8","v":11595.075000000001},{"$f":"ABS(E8)","v":11595.075000000001},{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E8)/A8","v":118246640.76918054},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F8)/A8","v":10045.831666666665},115.95075,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I8)","v":81.00310019345531},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E8)/H8","v":1.6402483019905936}]
[6,18000,20192.010750000001,20435.567500000001,2435.567500000001,2435.567500000001,{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E9)/A9","v":99527532.14882648},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F9)/A9","v":8777.454305555555},13.530930555555562,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I9)","v":69.757738587138689},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E9)/H9","v":2.154750702759284}]
[7,23000,20472.809675,20192.010750000001,-2807.9892499999987,2807.9892499999987,{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E10)/A10","v":86435713.788724914},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F10)/A10","v":7924.6735833333323},12.208648913043472,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I10)","v":61.53644006226795},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E10)/H10","v":2.0322902153603954}]
[8,38000,22225.528707500001,20472.809675,-17527.190325,17527.190325,{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E11)/A11","v":114031549.65123099},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F11)/A11","v":9124.9881760416665},46.124185065789476,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I11)","v":59.609908187708143},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E11)/H11","v":-0.15583074895374763}]
[9,12000,21202.975836750004,22225.528707500001,10225.528707500001,10225.528707500001,{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E12)/A12","v":112979314.95086162},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F12)/A12","v":9247.2704573148148},85.212739229166672,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I12)","v":62.454667192314645},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E12)/H12","v":0.95201876126262708}]
[10,13000,20382.678253075002,21202.975836750004,8202.9758367500035,8202.9758367500035,{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E13)/A13","v":108410264.71360591},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F13)/A13","v":9142.8409952583352},63.099814128846184,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I13)","v":62.519181885967804},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E13)/H13","v":1.860094779227079}]
[11,32000,21544.410427767503,20382.678253075002,-11617.321746924998,11617.321746924998,{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E14)/A14","v":110824073.79160322},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F14)/A14","v":9367.7937908643944},36.304130459140616,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I14)","v":60.135995392619883},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E14)/H14","v":0.57529330555012814}]
[12,41000,23489.969384990753,21544.410427767503,-19455.589572232497,19455.589572232497,{"$f":"SUMSQ($E$4:E15)/A15","v":133132064.77589977},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F15)/A15","v":10208.443439311735},47.452657493249987,{"$f":"AVERAGE($I$4:I15)","v":59.07905056767239},{"$f":"SUM($E$4:E15)/H15","v":-1.3779143314254894}]
[null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15","v":23489.969384990753},null,null,{"$f":"SQRT(G15)","v":11538.286908198277},{"$f":"1.25*H15","v":12760.554299139669}]
[null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15","v":23489.969384990753}]
[null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15","v":23489.969384990753}]
[null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15","v":23489.969384990753}]
[]
["alpha",0.1]

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["Forecasts Using Trend-Corrected Exponential Smoothing (Holt's Model)"]
["Period t","Demand Dt","Level Lt","Trend Tt","Forecast Ft","Error Et","Absolute Error At","Mean Squared Error MSEt","MADt","% Error","MAPEt","TSt"]
[0,null,12015,1549]
[1,8000,{"$f":"$B$21*B4+(1-$B$21)*(C3+D3)","v":13007.6},{"$f":"$B$22*(C4-C3)+(1-$B$22)*D3","v":1437.7200000000003},{"$f":"C3+D3","v":13564},{"$f":"E4-B4","v":5564},{"$f":"ABS(F4)","v":5564},{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F4)/A4","v":30958096},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G4)/A4","v":5564},{"$f":"100*G4/B4","v":69.55},{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J4)","v":69.55},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F4)/I4","v":1}]
[2,13000,14300.788,1408.8136000000002,{"$f":"C4+D4","v":14445.32},1445.3199999999997,1445.3199999999997,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F5)/A5","v":16523522.951199999},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G5)/A5","v":3504.66},{"$f":"100*G5/B5","v":11.117846153846152},{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J5)","v":40.333923076923071},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F5)/I5","v":2}]
[3,23000,16438.641439999999,1554.621568,15709.6016,-7290.3984,7290.3984,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F6)/A6","v":28732318.244374186},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G6)/A6","v":4766.5727999999999},31.697384347826084,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J6)","v":37.455076833890743},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F6)/I6","v":-5.8968657732448845E-2}]
[4,34000,19593.936707199999,1874.7563078399999,17993.263007999998,-16006.736992000002,16006.736992000002,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F7)/A7","v":85603145.966045946},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G7)/A7","v":7576.6138480000009},47.078638211764712,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J7)","v":39.860967178359232},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F7)/I7","v":-2.1497486500911616}]
[5,10000,20321.823713536,1645.3824475392003,21468.69301504,11468.69301504,11468.69301504,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F8)/A8","v":94788700.667482212},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G8)/A8","v":8355.0296814080011},114.6869301504,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J8)","v":54.82615977276739},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F8)/I8","v":-0.57679296911221467}]
[6,18000,21570.48554496768,1566.0383243176962,21967.206161075199,3967.2061610751989,3967.2061610751989,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F9)/A9","v":81613704.676980674},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G9)/A9","v":7623.7257613525335},22.040034228195548,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J9)","v":49.361805515338752},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F9)/I9","v":-0.11174539097451265}]
[7,23000,23122.871482356837,1563.3078469319885,23136.523869285375,136.52386928537453,136.52386928537453,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F10)/A10","v":69957266.689824089},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G10)/A10","v":6554.1254910572252},0.59358204037119366,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J10)","v":42.394916447486246},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F10)/I10","v":-0.10915145698316966}]
[8,38000,26017.561396359943,1829.584260346212,24686.179329288825,-13313.820670711175,13313.820670711175,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F11)/A11","v":83369835.960078105},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G11)/A11","v":7399.087388513969},35.036370186082038,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J11)","v":41.475098164810717},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F11)/I11","v":-1.8960734318517392}]
[9,12000,26262.431091035538,1512.6413472120887,27847.145656706154,15847.145656706154,15847.145656706154,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F12)/A12","v":102010079.23838729},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G12)/A12","v":8337.760529424213},132.05954713921795,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J12)","v":51.540036939744851},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F12)/I12","v":0.21803608210862024}]
[10,13000,26297.565194422863,1217.1398984471359,27775.072438247626,14775.072438247626,14775.072438247626,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F13)/A13","v":113639347.87009501},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G13)/A13","v":8981.4917203065525},113.65440337113557,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J13)","v":57.751473582883932},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F13)/I13","v":1.8474665004842681}]
[11,32000,27963.234583582998,1306.845796589736,27514.705092869997,-4485.2949071300027,4485.2949071300027,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F14)/A14","v":105137395.3731706},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G14)/A14","v":8572.7465554723221},14.01654658478126,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J14)","v":53.775571128510961},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F14)/I14","v":1.4123490169885335}]
[12,41000,30443.072342155461,1541.4441889862815,29270.080380172734,-11729.919619827266,11729.919619827266,{"$f":"SUMSQ($F$4:F15)/A15","v":107841863.61604042},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G15)/A15","v":8835.8443108352349},28.609560048359185,{"$f":"AVERAGE($J$4:J15)","v":51.678403538498316},{"$f":"SUM($F$4:F15)/I15","v":4.2756587530931076E-2}]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15+$D$15","v":31984.516531141744}]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15+2*$D$15","v":33525.960720128023}]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15+3*$D$15","v":35067.40490911431}]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"$C$15+4*$D$15","v":36608.849098100589}]
[]
["alpha",0.1]
["Beta",0.2]

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["Forecasts Using Trend and Seasonality Corrected Exponential Smoothing)"]
["Period t","Demand Dt","Level Lt","Trend Tt","Seasonal Factor St","Forecast Ft","Error Et","Absolute Error At","Mean Squared\nError MSEt","MADt","% Error","MAPEt","TSt"]
[null,null,18439,524]
[1,8000,{"$f":"$B$21*(B4/E4)+(1-$B$21)*(C3+D3)","v":18865.913829787234},{"$f":"$B$22*(C4-C3)+(1-$B$22)*D3","v":514.29138297872339},0.47,{"$f":"(C3+D3)*E4","v":8912.6099999999988},{"$f":"F4-B4","v":912.60999999999876},{"$f":"ABS(G4)","v":912.60999999999876},{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G4)/A4","v":832857.01209999772},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H4)/A4","v":912.60999999999876},{"$f":"100*H4/B4","v":11.407624999999985},{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K4)","v":11.407624999999985},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G4)/J4","v":1}]
[2,13000,19367.077305068837,512.97859220901137,0.68,{"$f":"(C4+D4)*E5","v":13178.539544680852},178.53954468085249,178.53954468085249,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G5)/A5","v":432366.69055742194},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H5)/A5","v":545.57477234042562},{"$f":"100*H5/B5","v":1.3733811129296345},{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K5)","v":6.3905030564648095},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G5)/J5","v":2}]
[3,23000,19868.959085319941,511.86891101322067,1.17,23259.665399815083,259.66539981508322,259.66539981508322,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G6)/A6","v":310719.83365865698},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H6)/A6","v":450.27164816531149},1.1289799991960141,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K6)","v":4.6366620373752108},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G6)/J6","v":3}]
[4,34000,20379.750668372792,511.76117821718373,1.67,34035.982753876378,35.98275387637841,35.98275387637841,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G7)/A7","v":233363.56488812473},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H7)/A7","v":346.69942459307822},0.1058316290481718,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K7)","v":3.5039544352934513},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G7)/J7","v":4}]
[5,10000,20921.270472494471,514.73704080763321,{"$f":"$B$23*(B4/C4)+(1-$B$23)*E4","v":0.46540451892327028},9723.00402054201,-276.99597945798996,276.99597945798996,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G8)/A8","v":202036.20643767802},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H8)/A8","v":332.75873556606058},2.7699597945798997,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K8)","v":3.3571555071507411},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G8)/J8","v":3.3351542733398825}]
[6,18000,21689.443332439725,540.08062272139534,0.6791242221798619,14557.711929112967,-3442.2880708870325,3442.2880708870325,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G9)/A9","v":2143254.6991932592},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H9)/A9","v":851.01362478622252},19.123822616039071,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K9)","v":5.9849333586321292},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G9)/J9","v":-2.740833147716804}]
[7,23000,22101.997858800012,527.32801308528451,1.1687584546892211,25980.944066311135,2980.9440663111345,2980.9440663111345,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G10)/A10","v":3106507.9602335882},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H10)/A10","v":1155.2894021469242},12.960626375265802,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K10)","v":6.9814609324369394},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G10)/J10","v":0.56129460993355251}]
[8,38000,22635.698412659141,527.96526716266897,1.6698322667595946,37787.178515891763,-212.8214841082372,212.8214841082372,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G11)/A11","v":2723856.0882166438},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H11)/A11","v":1037.4809123920884},0.56005653712694003,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K11)","v":6.1787853830231896},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G11)/J11","v":0.41989806754685677}]
[9,12000,23291.206780670833,540.71957724757124,0.4666623114690483,10809.608834917286,-1190.391165082714,1190.391165082714,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G12)/A12","v":2578653.3146266812},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H12)/A12","v":1054.4709404688247},9.9199263756892826,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K12)","v":6.5944677155416445},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G12)/J12","v":-0.71576646248492848}]
[10,13000,23576.657629493009,515.1927044050318,0.69420148173521279,16544.158590271429,3544.1585902714287,3544.1585902714287,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G13)/A13","v":3576893.9944634894},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H13)/A13","v":1303.4397054490851},27.262758386703297,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K13)","v":8.6612967826578107},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G13)/J13","v":2.1400327485480779}]
[11,32000,24271.405998537972,533.14827086902483,1.1559456000274511,27848.868389989319,-4151.1316100106815,4151.1316100106815,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G14)/A14","v":4818257.5989331603},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H14)/A14","v":1562.3207876819572},12.972286281283379,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K14)","v":9.0532049188964976},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G14)/J14","v":-0.8716058605430187}]
[12,41000,24791.338443719171,531.82668830024227,1.6707254594776499,41441.600328893306,441.60032889330614,441.60032889330614,{"$f":"SUMSQ($G$4:G15)/A15","v":4432987.0365619538},{"$f":"SUM($H$4:H15)/A15","v":1468.9274161162364},1.0770739729105028,{"$f":"AVERAGE($K$4:K15)","v":8.3885273400643303},{"$f":"SUM($G$4:G15)/J15","v":-0.62639420818439073}]
[13,null,null,null,0.47151767004912448,{"$f":"($C$15+$D$15)*E16","v":11940.319821319024}]
[14,null,null,null,0.67992061667931958,{"$f":"E17*($C$15+2*$D$15)","v":17579.341982710503}]
[15,null,null,null,1.172193422793663,{"$f":"E18*($C$15+3*$D$15)","v":30930.455104254335}]
[16,null,null,null,1.6690332543012292,{"$f":"E19*($C$15+4*$D$15)","v":44928.113994395775}]
[]
["alpha",0.05]
["Beta",0.1]
["Gamma",0.1]

{"sheet":"Regression sheet","index":8,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":18,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["REGRESSION SUMMARY OUTPUT"]
[]
["Regression Statistics"]
["Multiple R",0.95806523657865916]
["R Square",0.91788899754052211]
["Adjusted R Square",0.90420383046394248]
["Standard Error",414.50331244966674]
["Observations",8]
[]
["ANOVA"]
[null,"df","SS","MS","F","Significance F"]
["Regression",1,11523809.523809524,11523809.523809524,67.071815229159157,1.7860862469554794E-4]
["Residual",6,1030877.9761904762,171812.99603174604]
["Total",7,12554687.5]
[]
[null,"Coefficients","Standard Error","t Stat","P-value","Lower 95%","Upper 95%","Lower 95.0%","Upper 95.0%"]
["Intercept",18438.988095238074,440.80870787753844,41.829908905430763,1.2487616471728868E-8,17360.367255038629,19517.608935437518,17360.367255038629,19517.608935437518]
["X Variable 1",523.80952380952647,63.959249681367233,8.18973841030102,1.7860862469554271E-4,367.30676332184578,680.31228429720716,367.30676332184578,680.31228429720716]

{"sheet":"hlts-regr","index":9,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":18,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["HOLT'S MODEL REGRESSION SUMMARY OUTPUT"]
[]
["Regression Statistics"]
["Multiple R",0.4813271965428314]
["R Square",0.23167587013178143]
["Adjusted R Square",0.15484345714495956]
["Standard Error",10666.883374838264]
["Observations",12]
[]
["ANOVA"]
[null,"df","SS","MS","F","Significance F"]
["Regression",1,343092657.34265733,343092657.34265733,3.0153402857660869,0.11312702244665584]
["Residual",10,1137824009.3240094,113782400.93240094]
["Total",11,1480916666.6666667]
[]
[null,"Coefficients","Standard Error","t Stat","P-value","Lower 95%","Upper 95%","Lower 95.0%","Upper 95.0%"]
["Intercept",12015.151515151498,6565.0128935574921,1.830179423858016,9.7147266731838405E-2,-2612.6113080642699,26642.914338367264,-2612.6113080642699,26642.914338367264]
["X Variable 1",1548.951048951051,892.00959938859694,1.7364735200302062,0.11312702244665533,-438.57053972590825,3536.4726376280105,-438.57053972590825,3536.4726376280105]

{"sheet":"deseasonalized","index":10,"n_rows":15,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":15,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Forecasts Using Trend and Seasonality Corrected Exponential Smoothing)"]
["Deseasonalizing Demand"]
["Period\n t","Demand\n Dt","Deseasonalized\nDemand \n(Eqn 7.2)           ","Deseasonalized\nDemand \n(Eqn 7.3)           ","Seasonal Factor\n(Eqn 7.5)","Estimate\n(Eqn 7.6)   "]
[1,8000,null,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A4)","v":18962.7976190476},{"$f":"B4/D4","v":0.42187867849015187},{"$f":"(E4+E8+E12)/3","v":0.47168067193938795}]
[2,13000,null,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A5)","v":19486.607142857127},{"$f":"B5/D5","v":0.66712485681557898},{"$f":"(E5+E9+E13)/3","v":0.68340443601506262}]
[3,23000,{"$f":"(B4+B8+2*SUM(B5:B7))/8","v":19750},{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A6)","v":20010.416666666653},1.1494013534617395,{"$f":"(E6+E10+E14)/3","v":1.1707081255011917}]
[4,34000,{"$f":"(B5+B9+2*SUM(B6:B8))/8","v":20625},{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A7)","v":20534.22619047618},1.6557721574027111,{"$f":"(E7+E11+E15)/3","v":1.6644198124048515}]
[5,10000,21250,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A8)","v":21058.035714285706},0.47487810048759821]
[6,18000,21750,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A9)","v":21581.845238095233},0.83403433772322988]
[7,23000,22500,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A10)","v":22105.65476190476},1.0404577583305286]
[8,38000,22125,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A11)","v":22629.464285714286},1.6792266719274018]
[9,12000,22625,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A12)","v":23153.273809523813},0.51828523684041383]
[10,13000,24125,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A13)","v":23677.083333333339},0.54905411350637912]
[11,32000,null,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A14)","v":24200.892857142866},1.3222652647113073]
[12,41000,null,{"$f":"('winters regr'!$B$17+'winters regr'!$B$18*deseasonalized!A15)","v":24724.702380952389},1.6582606078844413]

{"sheet":"winters regr","index":11,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":18,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["WINTER'S MODEL REGRESSION SUMMARY OUTPUT"]
[]
["Regression Statistics"]
["Multiple R",0.95806523657865916]
["R Square",0.91788899754052211]
["Adjusted R Square",0.90420383046394248]
["Standard Error",414.50331244966674]
["Observations",8]
[]
["ANOVA"]
[null,"df","SS","MS","F","Significance F"]
["Regression",1,11523809.523809524,11523809.523809524,67.071815229159157,1.7860862469554794E-4]
["Residual",6,1030877.9761904762,171812.99603174604]
["Total",7,12554687.5]
[]
[null,"Coefficients","Standard Error","t Stat","P-value","Lower 95%","Upper 95%","Lower 95.0%","Upper 95.0%"]
["Intercept",18438.988095238074,440.80870787753844,41.829908905430763,1.2487616471728868E-8,17360.367255038629,19517.608935437518,17360.367255038629,19517.608935437518]
["X Variable 1",523.80952380952647,63.959249681367233,8.18973841030102,1.7860862469554271E-4,367.30676332184578,680.31228429720716,367.30676332184578,680.31228429720716]

{"sheet":"Error Summary","index":12,"n_rows":8,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":8,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,3,2,4],[2,2,3,2],[2,1,3,1],[2,0,3,0]]}
["Forecast Errors for Tahoe Salt Forecasting"]
[]
["Forecasting Method","MAD","MAPE(%)","TS Range"]
[null,null,null,"Min","Max"]
["Four-period moving average",{"$f":"Figure7.7!H14","v":9718.75},{"$f":"Figure7.7!J14","v":49.137636441260007},{"$f":"MIN(Figure7.7!$K$7:$K$14)","v":-1.517684887459807},{"$f":"MAX(Figure7.7!K7:K14)","v":2.2075471698113205}]
["Simple exponential smoothing",{"$f":"Figure7.8!H15","v":10208.443439311735},{"$f":"Figure7.8!J15","v":59.07905056767239},{"$f":"MIN(Figure7.8!K4:K15)","v":-1.3779143314254894},{"$f":"MAX(Figure7.8!K4:K15)","v":2.2533449582508966}]
["Holt's model",{"$f":"Figure7.9!I15","v":8835.8443108352349},{"$f":"Figure7.9!K15","v":51.678403538498316},{"$f":"MIN(Figure7.9!L4:L15)","v":-2.1497486500911616},{"$f":"MAX(Figure7.9!L4:L15)","v":2}]
["Winter's model",{"$f":"Figure7.10!J15","v":1468.9274161162364},{"$f":"Figure7.10!L15","v":8.3885273400643303},{"$f":"MIN(Figure7.10!M4:M15)","v":-2.740833147716804},{"$f":"MAX(Figure7.10!M4:M15)","v":4}]